ISSN Print: 2381-1153  ISSN Online: 2381-1161
American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science  
Manuscript Information
 
 
On Statistical Forecasting of the Atmospheric Temperature for Month
American Journal of Environmental Engineering and Science
Vol.4 , No. 6, Publication Date: Dec. 7, 2017, Page: 71-77
502 Views Since December 7, 2017, 423 Downloads Since Dec. 7, 2017
 
 
Authors
 
[1]    

Vladimir Stepanovich Mukha, Department of Automated Data Processing Systems, Belarusian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics, Minsk, Republic of Belarus.

 
Abstract
 

Irregular nature of the meteorological data requires obviously the probability-statistical data processing methods, but these methods didn’t find the significant application in meteorology. In this paper we investigate statistical algorithm based on Kolmogorov’s theory random sequences extrapolation for forecasting of atmospheric temperature. On the many real forecasts we compare the accuracy of statistical forecast with deterministic numerical and simple climatological forecasts when forecasting is performed for a month ahead. This analysis shows advantages and disadvantages as statistical as numerical forecasts.


Keywords
 

Statistical Weather Forecast, Numerical Weather Forecast, Extrapolation of a Random Sequences, Forecast of the Atmospheric Temperature


Reference
 
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Campbell, S. D., Diebold, F. X. Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives. Journal of the American Statistical Association. Vol. 100. No 469. Pp. 6-16. 2005.

[04]    

Kolmogorov, A. N. Interpolation and extrapolation of stationary random sequences. Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences of USSR. Mathematical series. Vol. 5. Pp. 3-14. 1941. In Russian.

[05]    

Mukha, V. S., Trofimovich, A. F. Numerical empirical analysis of accuracy of linear statistical forecasting of atmospheric temperature. Doclady BGUIR. No. 8 (62). Pp. 14-21. 2011. In Russian.

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Gismeteo: http://www.gismeteo.ru/

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Mukha, V. S. Statistical vector forecasting of the quantitative features of the weather. Information systems and technologies (IST’2004). Materials of International conference (Minsk, November 8–10, 2004.). Part 2. Pp. 195-200. 2004. In Russian.

[09]    

Mukha, V. S., Trofimovich, A. F. Estimation of mathematical expectation and covariance function of stationary random sequence by averaging over time and many realizations. Doclady BGUIR. No. 1 (39). Pp. 93-99. 2009. In Russian.

[10]    

Mukha, V. S., Kozyachy, A. N. Multidimensional model of data for analytical processing. Doclady BGUIR. No 1 (47). Pp. 100-105. 2010. In Russian.

[11]    

N. Gustafsson. Statistical issues in weather forecasting. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. V. 29. No. 2. Pp. 219-239. 2002.





 
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