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Vol.2 , No. 6, Publication Date: Dec. 17, 2015, Page: 93-99
. Within the project, the detailed regional projections, which can constitute the main inputs of the studies related with climate change impact/adaptation, have been developed. In this study, the project results downscaled to the Gediz River Basin are used in the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, in order to assess the climate change impacts on water budget of the basin in future. The WEAP is forced to simulate the water system between 2010 and 2100 with the time series of temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and surface runoff data which are obtained by web-based data dissemination system of the project. The used data are the simulation results of ECHAM5 (European Centre Hamburg Model version 5) general circulation model and RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model version 3) regional climate model, and base on IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 emission scenario. The water-related changes due to climate change are evaluated in accordance with the WEAP model results for three (30-year-long) periods. A comprehensive assessment on water budget of the basin is given with respect to variations in supply reliability, unmet demand and crop yield. The results indicate that the basin will suffer from water shortages especially after 2050, and the amount of unmet water demand will be greater than supplied water. In that respect, the decrease in crop yields is obvious.&picture=http://www.aascit.org/aascit/decorators/img/journal/924.jpg)
| [1] | B. Yilmaz, Celal Bayar University, Manisa Vocational School, Sehzadeler, Manisa, Turkey. |
Like many river basins in Eastern and Southern Mediterranean countries, the Gediz River Basin also suffers from water scarcity. In this agriculture-dominant basin, the water resources are almost fully allocated, and it is expected that the climate change impacts will exacerbate the water crisis, especially in the hot and dry summer seasons. Being able to assess the ability of the basin to satisfy potential water demands is crucial in order to plan for future and make reasonable decisions. Recently, a lot of efforts have been made to better characterize and model the possible impacts of climate change; one of which is the project “Climate Change Scenarios for Turkey”, funded by TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey). Within the project, the detailed regional projections, which can constitute the main inputs of the studies related with climate change impact/adaptation, have been developed. In this study, the project results downscaled to the Gediz River Basin are used in the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, in order to assess the climate change impacts on water budget of the basin in future. The WEAP is forced to simulate the water system between 2010 and 2100 with the time series of temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and surface runoff data which are obtained by web-based data dissemination system of the project. The used data are the simulation results of ECHAM5 (European Centre Hamburg Model version 5) general circulation model and RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model version 3) regional climate model, and base on IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2 emission scenario. The water-related changes due to climate change are evaluated in accordance with the WEAP model results for three (30-year-long) periods. A comprehensive assessment on water budget of the basin is given with respect to variations in supply reliability, unmet demand and crop yield. The results indicate that the basin will suffer from water shortages especially after 2050, and the amount of unmet water demand will be greater than supplied water. In that respect, the decrease in crop yields is obvious.
Keywords
Climate Change Impacts, Water Balance, Crop Yield, Weap, Gediz Basin
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