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Vol.1 , No. 3, Publication Date: Aug. 26, 2014, Page: 72-78
 H5N1 infection has been reported in domestic poultry, and human populations in Egypt since 2006. Despite of this, there is no clearly paper studied the Egyptian climate risk factors that associated with avian influenza outbreaks. Therefore, this paper aimed to construct the regional equation models for Egypt, which will represent a solid ground for future forecasts of avian influenza outbreaks and its patterns in relation to climate change. The results revealed that, 1. Climate factors (temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) were considered as highly risk factors in its orders in the outbreak of avian influenza and the degree of their risks differed regionally. 2. Also, the degree of avian influenza outbreak decreased gradually from north to south direction in Egypt and the effect of wind speed decreased and has no effect in disease outbreaks in south area of Egypt (Upper Egypt). 3. The validation process of the constructed equation model for each domain in Egypt indicated higher confidence level, which was 99.21%, 99.5% and 99 % for Upper, Middle and Delta region, respectively; therefore these equations can be used for forecasting of the outbreaks depending on the future climate change. 4. In addition, it exhibits seasonality, which peaks during the winter and fall months.&picture=http://www.aascit.org/aascit/decorators/img/journal/903.jpg)
| [1] | Ibrahim, A. Ahmed, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Sadat City University, Sadat City, Egypt; College of Veterinary Medicine, Tuskegee University, Tuskegee, USA. |
| [2] | Gamal, S. El Afandi, College of Agriculture, Environment and Nutrition Sciences, Tuskegee University, USA; Dept. of Astronomy and Meteorology, Faculty of Science Al Azhar University, Cairo Egypt. |
| [3] | Gopal, P. Reddy, College of Veterinary Medicine, Tuskegee University, Tuskegee, USA. |
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 infection has been reported in domestic poultry, and human populations in Egypt since 2006. Despite of this, there is no clearly paper studied the Egyptian climate risk factors that associated with avian influenza outbreaks. Therefore, this paper aimed to construct the regional equation models for Egypt, which will represent a solid ground for future forecasts of avian influenza outbreaks and its patterns in relation to climate change. The results revealed that, 1. Climate factors (temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) were considered as highly risk factors in its orders in the outbreak of avian influenza and the degree of their risks differed regionally. 2. Also, the degree of avian influenza outbreak decreased gradually from north to south direction in Egypt and the effect of wind speed decreased and has no effect in disease outbreaks in south area of Egypt (Upper Egypt). 3. The validation process of the constructed equation model for each domain in Egypt indicated higher confidence level, which was 99.21%, 99.5% and 99 % for Upper, Middle and Delta region, respectively; therefore these equations can be used for forecasting of the outbreaks depending on the future climate change. 4. In addition, it exhibits seasonality, which peaks during the winter and fall months.
Keywords
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Outbreaks, Climate Factors, Equation Model, and Validation Process
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