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Vol.4 , No. 1, Publication Date: Jun. 7, 2017, Page: 7-13
 is considered as one of the biggest threats for both human and livestock. The disease has significant economic importance due to losses and abortion in infected animals and public health hazard to human. The main purpose of this investigation is to explore the relationship between RVF outbreaks and weather conditions throughout different governorates in Egypt. Therefore, 450 serum samples were collected from sheep and goat for four selected governorates during 2013. Three represent delta region (Kaliobia, Dakahlia, Sharkia) and another one represents north-west coast of Egypt (Marsa Matrouh). Different meteorological parameters have been downloaded and collected for the same locations and year, from NASA website. It was noticed that, number of outbreaks for both animals is decreasing gradually from January to December for all governorates. The maximum occurrence of this disease is happening mainly in January and February. In the same time, the highest RVF outbreaks were reported at El-Sharkia governorate comparable to other ones. In addition, the number of cases had increased and concentrated during the first half of the year compared to the second one. In the same time, outbreaks were increased in sheep than goat at different governorates. Most of governorates did not record any outbreak during the second half of the year; especially for goat. One may notice that, these outbreaks were negatively correlated with solar radiation, maximum, minimum, mean and dew point temperature, but positively correlated with rainfall, wind speed and relative humidity. Using monthly RVF outbreaks and meteorological data, the regression equations were developed for each animal in the selected governorates during 2013. Through statistical calculations, these equations proved that, it could be used with high confidence and accuracy to predict the number of RVF outbreaks in relation to meteorological and weather condition over different governorates in Egypt.&picture=http://www.aascit.org/aascit/decorators/img/journal/903.jpg)
| [1] | Gamal El Afandi, College of Agriculture, Environment and Nutrition Sciences, Tuskegee University, Tuskegee, Alabama, United States； Department of Astronomy and Meteorology, Faculty of Science, Al Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt. |
| [2] | Mostafa Morsy, Department of Astronomy and Meteorology, Faculty of Science, Al Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt. |
| [3] | Abdelfattah Selim, Department of Animal Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Benha University, Moshtohor, Qalubia, Egypt. |
| [4] | Mohamed Atef Helal, Department of Animal Wealth Development, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Kafrelsheikh University, Kafrelsheikh, Egypt. |
Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is considered as one of the biggest threats for both human and livestock. The disease has significant economic importance due to losses and abortion in infected animals and public health hazard to human. The main purpose of this investigation is to explore the relationship between RVF outbreaks and weather conditions throughout different governorates in Egypt. Therefore, 450 serum samples were collected from sheep and goat for four selected governorates during 2013. Three represent delta region (Kaliobia, Dakahlia, Sharkia) and another one represents north-west coast of Egypt (Marsa Matrouh). Different meteorological parameters have been downloaded and collected for the same locations and year, from NASA website. It was noticed that, number of outbreaks for both animals is decreasing gradually from January to December for all governorates. The maximum occurrence of this disease is happening mainly in January and February. In the same time, the highest RVF outbreaks were reported at El-Sharkia governorate comparable to other ones. In addition, the number of cases had increased and concentrated during the first half of the year compared to the second one. In the same time, outbreaks were increased in sheep than goat at different governorates. Most of governorates did not record any outbreak during the second half of the year; especially for goat. One may notice that, these outbreaks were negatively correlated with solar radiation, maximum, minimum, mean and dew point temperature, but positively correlated with rainfall, wind speed and relative humidity. Using monthly RVF outbreaks and meteorological data, the regression equations were developed for each animal in the selected governorates during 2013. Through statistical calculations, these equations proved that, it could be used with high confidence and accuracy to predict the number of RVF outbreaks in relation to meteorological and weather condition over different governorates in Egypt.
Keywords
Rift Valley Fever, Nile Delta, North-West Coast, Egypt, Weather Conditions, Regression Analysis
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